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Poll shows US youth favor China engagement, reject restrictive policies; Washington’s China containment narratives lose traction: expert_我的网站

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Students from Lincoln High School and Steilacoom High School in the United States wait on Saturday at San Francisco International Airport in California for their flight to take them on a cultural-exchange journey to China. Photo: China News Service
A US public opinion survey indicated that most younger Americans don't see China as a critical threat to the US and favor a policy of friendly cooperation and engagement. A Chinese expert said that public sentiment demonstrates that narratives long constructed by certain US politicians to contain China's development have lost traction among young Americans, adding that, aided by social media, they are better able to form independent judgments about the reality of China's development.
Reflecting these generational shifts, data from a joint Chicago Council-NPR-Ipsos survey, conducted in the US from March 13 to 15, 2026, and the 2025 Chicago Council Survey showed that attitudes toward China are becoming increasingly differentiated across age groups, according to a report by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on Wednesday.
This research covers four generational cohorts following standard cohort definitions. These include Baby Boomers born between 1946 and 1964, Gen X born between 1965 and 1980, Millennials born between 1981 and 1996, and Gen Z born between 1997 and 2013.
The report said younger generations consistently expressed less antagonistic and more flexible views on China's role in the world, as well as greater skepticism toward restrictive economic and social policies.
The survey showed that over the past two decades, younger Americans have consistently expressed "less concern about China's rise than older generations." Minorities of Millennials, at 43 percent, and Generation Zers, at 34 percent, view the development of China as a world power as a critical threat to the US, compared with majorities of Baby Boomers, at 62 percent, and Generation Xers at 56 percent.
China's sustained growth has injected positive impetus into global development, enabling the international community to more clearly recognize China's role as a contributor, Shen Yi, director of the International Research Institute of Global Cyberspace Governance at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Thursday.
Regarding views on China's global ambitions, the report said younger cohorts are "more open to the possibility that China's desired global role might be more collaborative."
Young Americans' attitudes toward China also signal that the full set of narratives long crafted by certain US politicians to contain China's development has lost traction among younger generations in the US, Shen said.
The report also noted that support for a US policy of cooperation and engagement with China has rebounded sharply from the lows of 2024.
Majorities of Generation Z, at 59 percent, and Millennials at 58 percent favor a policy of friendly cooperation and engagement with China, nearly 10 percentage points above the shares of Baby Boomers and Generation X who hold the same view.
"Younger Americans have come of age in a more interconnected world shaped by digital exchange and cross-border education, where social media trends have made engagement with Chinese culture increasingly ordinary," reads the report.
In January this year, creator @sherryxiiruii listed a series of distinct Chinese lifestyle habits in a viral TikTok video, and the playful "prophecy" sparked a global craze, gaining nearly 750,000 likes and sparked a top-trending hashtag #BecomingChinese, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
Shen said that by bypassing screening and filtering by traditional US media, social media platforms provide ordinary Americans, particularly young people, direct access to the everyday lives of Chinese citizens and the realities of Chinese society, adding that this empowers them to "break free from an information landscape dominated by one-sided, skewed messaging."
Additionally, the report said Millennials and Gen Zers show strong opposition to restrictive policies targeting Chinese students, higher tariffs, and reduced trade overall. For example, 65 percent of Millennials and 64 percent of Gen Zers oppose limiting the number of Chinese students studying in the US.
Yet the policy direction of the US administration stands in stark contrast to the prevailing views. For example, the US National Science Foundation (NSF) in July announced its forthcoming policy prohibiting NSF funds from being spent on collaboration with entities on US restricted parties lists, which could effectively bar collaborations between NSF-funded US scientists and nearly all Chinese research institutions and their employees, US media reported.
Such a contrast also lays bare a notable disconnect between US policymaking and the genuine sentiments of ordinary Americans, as authorities seldom take public aspirations into account when rolling out relevant initiatives, Shen said.
In the short term, perceptions among younger generations cannot reverse Washington's existing restrictive policies toward China. From a long-term perspective, however, the more objective and amicable views of China held by today's youth carry irreplaceable positive value, the expert said.
。最近，国际货币基金组织（IMF）的一把手和二把手接连发声警告“灰犀牛”： IMF总裁“一把手”格奥尔基耶娃表示，私募信贷市场规模已突破2.3万亿美元，远超监管与数据监测能力，是她“夜不能寐的风险之一”。IMF报告指出，私募信贷基金的高杠杆、低透明度，可能成为下一轮信用紧缩的触发点。同时IMF的“二把手”第一副总裁、前首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特（Gita Gopinath）称美国股市如果崩盘，将可能引发比2000年互联网泡沫更严重、更全球化的经济危机。并称如果出现类似2000年的崩盘，美国家庭可能损失超20万亿美元，外国投资者损失约15万亿美元。这两个看似独立的警告，实则指向同一条暗流：全球金融体系的脆弱性正在加深，而结果或是史诗级财富大重置。

B | IMF对股票崩盘严重性的估算 IMF的“二把手”第一副总裁、前首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特（Gita Gopinath）公开表示：若出现与互联网泡沫相当幅度的回调，可能会抹去美国家庭超过20万亿美元的财富，约相当于2024年美国GDP的70%…… 全球层面的后果同样严峻。海外投资者可能面临超过15万亿美元的财富损失，约为世界其他地区GDP的20%。相比之下，互联网泡沫破裂时海外损失约2万亿美元，按今日价值约4万亿美元，占当时世界其他地区GDP的不到10%。虽然上面提到的数字非常吓人，但是需要指出的是，吉塔·戈皮纳特（Gita Gopinath）的这段话不是一个“预测”，而是一个“情景分析”或更确切地说是“压力测试”：其核心逻辑是：今天的市场规模和全球对美国资产的敞口远大于2000年，因此同等幅度的下跌将造成大得多的损失。具体而言：互联网泡沫破裂时（2000年～2002年），市场经历了巨幅下跌：以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数（NASDAQ）从高点到低点下跌了约78%；范围更广的标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）下跌了约49%。

C | 当然以上都是从高点的最大下跌幅度，为避免用极端值，很多情景分析会取35%作为“互联网泡沫量级”的代表性回调幅度。图：美联储最新统计的美国家庭资产负债表如果按照目前的美国家庭股票持有情况来看，61万亿美元的35%大概就是20万亿美元；相比之下，2024年美国GDP总量为29万亿多点。那海外的15万亿美元损失是怎么来的呢？图：美国财政部统计的外资持有的美国证券存量从上图中可以看出，截至2024年6月30日，外资持有美股大约17万亿美元。（之所以用了这么滞后的数据，是因为这已经是最新数据了。

D | 这个数据的发布时滞很长：截至2025年6月的数据，预计在2026年2月27日才能发布）考虑到2024年6月30日标普只有5500点，而现在已经接近6700点，所以按照比例来算：17*（6700/5500）=20.71。

E | 如果市值回调35%，外资在美股的损失大概是7万亿美元；另外8万亿美元将来自于美国崩盘向海外股市外溢造成的损失：目前全球股市的总市值大概就是120万亿美元的水平，而美国自己就占了超过60万亿美元，在美国大跌的背景下，非美股市历史上也会联动下跌，但幅度通常低于美国本土。保守起见，即便外围股市跌个15%，这就差不多八九万亿了。

F | 这回真的跌不起 35%的幅度，实际上是正常熊市下跌的水平，但是这回真的跌不起。因为这一次不仅仅是蒸发市值这么简单。首先，这一次对消费的影响将非常严重。最近几年（2023～2025年），美国实际个人消费支出（Real PCE）同比大致在2.5%～2.6%附近，但在互联网泡沫前的90年代后期（1998～1999年）：美国实际个人消费支出常见增速在4%～5%。在目前牛市情况下已经非常疲弱的消费增速，是经不起熊市打击的，特别是现在的美国消费对股市依赖也越来越高的情况下，更是如此： 2022年以来高收入群体支出领跑并托住了美国总消费：美国前10%人群的消费现在占比接近一半，而这群人持股与金融资产占比最高，因而对股市最敏感。主流研究估计股市财富每变动1美元，年消费变动约2.8～5美分，但在目前结构下，影响比例肯定会更高：如果美国股市蒸发20万亿美元，对消费的影响将是上万亿级别。由于美国约70%的GDP都是消费，这个冲击量级足以把当年消费增速拉低数个百分点，从而把GDP增速压低约至少2个百分点。

G | 关键问题是，这次可能不太好恢复。以往美国经济危机会出现大量“避险资金”来抄底：历史上，美元在危机时期往往走强，所谓“避险买入”有助于抵消以美元计价财富缩水的冲击。即便危机来源自美国，投资者也常常涌向美元资产，使美元升值。但现在有理由认为下一次危机时这种机制未必奏效。

H | 首先，市场对美联储的看法在维持投资者信心方面至关重要。然而，近期的特朗普对美联储的一系列操控和挑战，让人质疑美联储能否能继续不受外部压力干扰地运作。若此类担忧加深，可能进一步侵蚀对美元及更广泛美国金融资产的信任。第二，与2000年不同的是，如今美国增长面临的逆风更为强劲：美国加征关税，以及全球经济秩序走向的不确定性上升；同时，政府债务处于历史高位，美国像2000年那样通过财政刺激来托底经济的空间也更有限。第三、之前危机都是有全球力量在相互配合，共同走出危机；现在特朗普把人都给得罪了遍，下次危机更可能的范式是各人顾各人，甚至“落井下石”。所以，如果这次美股市场崩盘，其后果不太可能像互联网泡沫破裂后的那样短暂且相对温和。